đ The Week in International Sport
Monday February 2nd: men's handball, the Six Nations and a sharp USWNT finish
This year at Plot the Ball, Iâm using data to try and better understand the landscape of international team sport. For some background to this project â which Iâm calling âRank the Nationsâ â you can read my introductory post here.
In todayâs edition of The Week in International Sport:
đȘđŹ Egypt winning an African title in menâs handball
đ©đ° Denmark winning a European title in menâs handball
đ§đ· Brazil winning a South American title in menâs futsal
đ Chart of the week: assessing the fall of Wales in menâs rugby union
âȘïž Highlight of the week: Emma Searsâ sharp near-post finish
đ A few other interesting things I learned
As a reminder: the team ratings used in this newsletter are on a zero-to-10 scale, and are calculated based on a nationâs performance in competitive fixtures in a given sport since the start of the 2022 calendar year. (For more detail, click here.)
đȘđŹ Egypt win the 2026 African Menâs Handball Championship
How to define the geographical scope of the âRank the Nationsâ database was something I puzzled over at the beginning of this project. I wanted the rating system to fairly represent the global spread of each sport, while retaining its descriptive value.
Simply including results from every regional competition in a given sport would jeopardise a fair amount of that utility; a win in a tournament between clearly weaker nations shouldnât be worth as much as a win in one contested by stronger teams. Menâs handball is a good example of this puzzle. To recap, I landed on including the results of any regional tournament contested by at least two nations that have reached the semi-final stage of an Olympic tournament or a World Cup since 2000.
Egypt (7.0) won a fourth straight African title on Saturday, and now have the second-best rating in the sport. As the only team from Africa in the top eight, though, they have an easier path to regional success than their European rivals. I may revisit this scoping decision in future, but for now Iâm content that it doesnât overrate Egypt too much: at both the 2024 Olympics and the 2025 World Championship, the eventual third-place finishers eliminated them in the quarter-finals by a one-goal margin.
đ©đ° Denmark win the 2026 European Menâs Handball Championship
Just how competitive is European menâs handball, then? Denmark (7.2) won four consecutive World Championships between 2019 and 2025, but failed to place better than second at the European Championship over the same period.
That changed yesterday: on home soil, they took out the 2026 title with a 34-27 win over Germany (5.9). Despite a shock group-stage loss here to Portugal (5.1), thereâs no real dispute over their status as the sportâs top team; they also hold Olympic gold.
đ§đ· Brazil win the 2026 menâs Copa AmĂ©rica de Futsal
Brazil (8.7) defeated Argentina (7.3) 2-1 yesterday to win a second consecutive South American title in menâs futsal. This was a repeat of both the 2024 Copa AmĂ©rica final and the 2024 World Cup final; Brazil have won all three times.
The current world champions have been one of the most dominant menâs teams in the âRank the Nationsâ database: they have won 92% of their matches in top-level competition since the start of 2022, and scored 83% of the goals in their fixtures.
đ Chart of the week: Can Wales bounce back in the menâs Six Nations?
The chart below reveals a number of interesting recent trends in menâs rugby union in Europe: Franceâs recent revival, for example, and Irelandâs steady rise to the top. This year, however, Iâll be watching the bottom of the Six Nations table just as closely.
Italy have consistently been the weakest of Europeâs six elite teams since they joined the competition in 2000: on a five-year rolling basis, theyâve always had a lower point share than every other nation. As they have improved their level of performance in recent seasons, however, Wales have declined precipitously. As recently as 2016, they were the strongest Six Nations team by this measure; by the end of the 2026 edition, itâs not out of the question that they will have fallen all the way to the bottom.
âȘïž Highlight of the week: Emma Searsâ sharp near-post finish
Compared to 2027 and 2028 â a World Cup year and an Olympic year â 2026 will be a quiet one for the USAâs womenâs soccer team. Their January fixtures were fairly low-profile, too: their stars who are contracted to European clubs were unavailable.
In two friendlies against Paraguay and Chile, however, the USWNTâs domestic-based players took care of business: they won both comfortably, by an aggregate of 11 goals to nil. Forward Emma Sears â who plays for Racing Louisville in the NWSL, and made her international debut after the last Olympics in 2024 â continued to impress. In the 46th minute against Chile, she broke into the box from the right and gave the team a 4-0 lead with a pinpoint finish over the goalkeeperâs left shoulder at the near post.
You can watch a replay of this goal on Instagram here.
đ What else I learned last week
For ESPNCricinfo, Alex Malcolm provided some background on the rigorous process that led to Australia naming Sophie Molineux as their new captain in womenâs test cricket, ODI cricket and T20I cricket. A number of details stood out. Malcolm reported that Molineux was invited to apply, rather than putting herself forward, and that she took part in âmultiple interviews with [selector Shawn] Flegler and coach Shelley Nitschke, as well as the Cricket Australia boardâ.
For USA Today, Cydney Henderson previewed the impact that the PWHL â the top professional competition in North American womenâs ice hockey â could have on the upcoming Winter Olympics. (This is the first tournament since its establishment in 2024.) The PWHL has not just provided players from the USA and Canada with opportunities; â22 players from the league are set to represent six European countriesâ, including eight who will play for the Czech Republic.
For The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich summarised why some stars of menâs baseball might miss the upcoming World Baseball Classic. In general, if a player gets injured at the WBC, their MLB team is covered by insurance; however, coverage is now more difficult to obtain for those with a recent history of injury. Puerto Rico could be badly affected: âthey might withdraw the team from the tournament after learning eight to 10 of their players would be denied coverageâ.
The next edition of the newsletter will be published on Monday February 9th.
Is there any promotion/relegation system for the Six Nations? I'm still learning rugby culture, and I don't even know how many other nations might be interested or able to take over a spot.
Really interesting methodology on the regional tournament inclusion criteria. The Egypt example shows how tricky it is to weight regional dominance against global competition, especially when they consistenly lose close quarters at major tournamets. The fact that they're rated second globally but got eliminated by 1 goal at both Olympics and Worlds kinda validates the scoping logic. It's a delicate balance between inclusivity and meaningful rankings.