✉️ PTB ICYMI

What I've learned about sport(s) over the last few months

Jul 25, 2025

In addition to the regular Friday newsletter, every few months this year I’ll also be sending subscribers a brief recap of all the work that has recently been published at Plot the Ball — in case there’s anything you’ve missed.

Refer a friend

What I’ve learned over the last two months

⚽️ Arsenal won’t have any margin for error in this year’s Women’s Champions League final

If the English side let Barça get ahead in Lisbon — as they allowed Real Madrid and Lyon to do — the two-time defending champions are unlikely to relinquish that advantage as easily.

⚽️ Pedri’s passing has taken another leap in the second half of 2024-25

In his last 14 league games, Pedri has averaged 3.3 passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes — up from a rate of 1.8 per 90 minutes before Christmas.

⚽️ No one in football is as comfortable with chaos as Barcelona coach Hansi Flick

With an updated version of the same dataset, we can see the action-maximising approach that Flick’s teams take to the game — one that has been consistent at all of the stops in his coaching career to date.

⚽️ Two Premier League defenders will be key to Real Madrid’s progress next season

[T]here’s much more meaningful signal in who Madrid have already targeted in the transfer market. Their two biggest deals so far — one officially confirmed, and one as good as — share some interesting characteristics.

⚽️ This year’s retooled PSG overwhelmed teams with volume — and quality — in possession

Fewer of their shots than last year were directly preceded by a take-on — and more were taken in fairly settled possession. Without their former figurehead, PSG excelled as a dynamic, coherent passing unit.

⚽️ Barça and Spain’s Clàudia Pina is a long-range gunner on a hot streak

[N]o one took lower-quality attempts than the 23-year-old: her average shot was 17.8 yards from goal — and worth just 0.10 xG.

⚽️ Spain stand apart from their rivals — but are still a long way from triumphing at Euro 2025

Slice things this way, and you get to the same conclusion: Spain have the best win rate (69%) in matches between the ‘top eight’, as well as the best average goal difference (+0.9).

⚽️ Iceland — and their excellent goalkeeper — could cause a major upset at Euro 2025

Over the last few years, they have a decent record against the ‘top eight’ teams at the tournament I analysed last week — and, crucially, their goalkeeper might be the best of any team’s.

⚽️ Germany’s Ann-Katrin Berger is the most active goalie at Euro 2025

She has also made by far the most defensive interventions outside her own box: 5.7 per 90 minutes, while other goalies have averaged just 1.2.

🏏 Yashasvi Jaiswal’s effective T20 batting shouldn’t be underrated

Among this cohort, Jaiswal has recorded the second-best effective boundary rate in absolute terms — behind only Abhishek — and the best in relative terms.

🏏 The highs of Zak Crawley’s test career so far don’t outweigh the lows

Over his 53 tests, he has averaged 4.3 fewer runs per dismissal than the other players batting in the top three in those games.

🏏 India’s Mayank Yadav wasn’t at full tilt in 2025 — even before injury

Yadav’s inability to sustain his usual speed when (apparently) fit to play is almost as concerning as his time on the sidelines.

🏏 The IPL has become more difficult for bowlers — but Jasprit Bumrah is immune

As the rate of runs conceded by Mumbai’s other pace bowlers has shot up, Bumrah’s economy rate has actually improved. Over his last 30 innings in the IPL, Bumrah has conceded just over 26 runs per 24-ball spell.

🏏 India captain Shubman Gill has become a more measured test batter

In the most recent cycle, though, that gap disappeared: Gill’s strike rate of 61.5 was almost exactly equal to his peers’ (61.1).

🏏 Men’s test cricket in England is no longer following the game’s traditional script

Reversing a fairly consistent trend, scoring in the fourth innings of test matches hosted in the country has become much easier: since 2022, teams have recorded more runs per dismissal batting last than in any other phase of the game.

🏏 Shafali Verma’s boundary-hitting ability has regressed for India

Verma’s hitting has since regressed: her EB% is only 1.3 points better than her peers over the last three years.

🏏 Sam Konstas has started his test career in difficult circumstances

It’s early to be writing him off entirely, though — primarily because almost everyone has struggled to score runs in the games that he’s played so far.

🏏 Shubman Gill’s leap gives India a strong batting core — but their selection remains conservative

With their core of plus batters, they could be aggressive in selecting the rest of their line-up — favouring players with wicket-taking ability over less threatening bowlers who might shore up their batting further.

🏀 Luka Dončić’s declining athleticism is already clear to the eye — and in the numbers

In his first two years with the Dallas Mavericks, more than 20% of his field-goal attempts were taken within three feet of the basket; in 2024-25, such shots accounted for just 10.3% of his attempts.

🏀 Rudy Gobert is still struggling to stay on the floor in the playoffs

Despite some dominant moments, so far in this year’s playoffs Gobert is averaging under 30 minutes per game for the first time since 2016-17.

🏀 The Indiana Fever head into the WNBA season with high expectations — and a real opportunity

Players who played 60% of the Fever’s regular-season minutes in 2024 are still on their roster in 2025; this is the third-highest figure among the eight teams that qualified for last year’s playoffs.

🏀 Dominique Malonga is starting slow — but time is on the rookie’s side

But there’s no need to panic: her lack of playing time isn’t completely unusual for someone selected so high in the draft.

🏀 The league-leading Liberty are pushing the boundaries of three-point shooting in the WNBA

Only three teams in WNBA history have ever scored more than 90 points per game; the Liberty are averaging 90.4 through nine games. How? By taking — and making — an incredible number of three-pointers.

🏀 In her absence, Jonquel Jones looks like the Liberty’s key player

[O]ver the last three seasons, she has played only 7% of her minutes without Sabrina Ionescu or Breanna Stewart alongside her.

🏀 Caitlin Clark’s first 50 WNBA games revealed her passing skill — and room for growth

She has found ways to open up those lanes again; over her last 20 WNBA games, Clark has averaged 9.2 assists per 36. Her turnovers, though, have been stubborn — and are actually trending upward to start 2025.

🏉 New Zealand’s Black Ferns need more balance to defend their World Cup title

[T]heir issue is how reliant they are on that running game to progress upfield: the Black Ferns have gained 66% of their metres by carrying the ball over this period, according to Rugby.com.au data.

🏉 South Africa’s Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu isn’t your typical fly-half

[O]ver this period, he’s made 8.5 passes and 10.2 carries per 80 minutes; opposing 10s average 16 and 7 respectively.

🏉 Kiwi Jorja Miller will have to fight hard to stand out in 15-a-side rugby

Miller has played the position in domestic rugby in the past, but brings a different frame and skillset to the role compared to other international back-rowers.

🏉 Leinster’s attack rebounded as they finished the season on a high

Across April, May and June, Leinster played 10 games across domestic and continental competition — and scored 40.2 points per game on average.

🏉 Test hopeful Henry Pollock brings youthful energy — and inexperience — to the Lions pack

[H]e does the most visible things that a player can do — carry the ball when his team has possession, and tackle the ball-carrier when they don’t — more frequently than anyone else the Lions have selected at his position.

🏉 Joseph Sua’ali’i doesn’t yet have the kicking game to play fullback

Why isn’t Australia head coach Joe Schmidt considering him there in international rugby? One obvious current limitation is his lack of a tactical kicking game.

🏉 The weak defence of the Wallabies presents the British & Irish Lions with a golden opportunity

[I]n their most recent set of fixtures, they have conceded around five more points per game than a typical ‘Tier 1’ team. With a below-average attack, too, Wales and Italy are currently the only weaker teams overall.

⛳️ After Nelly Korda, the top tier of women’s golf is distinctly international

After her, though, you have to go a long way down to find another American; the next 18 spots are all filled by international players.

⛳️ It didn’t take a once-in-a-lifetime performance for Rory McIlroy to win his fifth major

The final round of the 2025 Masters was as dramatic as any Sunday the venue had seen in recent memory. If you step back, though, McIlroy’s week resembles many of his other recent performances at majors.

⛳️ Nelly Korda’s putting stroke deserted her at the US Women’s Open

Korda was the only player in the top 12 of this year’s tournament to lose strokes to the field on the greens.

⛳️ 20-year-old South African Aldrich Potgieter is already elite off the tee

According to Data Golf’s ‘adjusted driving distance’ metric, he hits the ball 25 yards further than tour average off the tee, trailing only Bryson DeChambeau.

⛳️ Jordan Spieth’s best is no longer good enough to challenge at majors

From 2015 to 2018, his performances were worth around 2.7 ‘expected wins’ at majors; over the seven seasons since, that figure is just 0.2 expected wins.

🎾 Iga Świątek is still struggling for form — even on her favourite surface

In 2025 — having been bounced at the quarter-final stage in Germany and the semi-finals in Spain — she only has one chance left to continue this streak.

🎾 Carlos Alcaraz cranked up his forehand to beat Sinner in Rome

In the first set against Sinner, per Tennis Insights, Alcaraz was able to hit his forehand with 25% more spin than the ATP average.

🎾 The consistent Jannik Sinner has a crucial role in the new rivalry atop men’s tennis

Before this year’s French Open, Sinner had recorded both a winner rate and an unforced-error rate between 10% and 20% in 16 of 18 matches. For Alcaraz, both metrics fell within that range only 11 times out of 20.

🎾 Jannik Sinner wasn’t as tidy as usual against Alcaraz at Roland Garros

That UFE%, however, shot up to 18% in the final against Alcaraz — one of his worst career marks in the latter stages of a grand slam.

🎾 Iga Świątek’s surprising Wimbledon title was powered by her serve

No one at Wimbledon did better than Świątek on her own serve, as she won 69% of the points — and 91% of the games — that she initiated at the tournament.

⚾️ After eight MLB starts, Roki Sasaki’s upside remains a mystery

[B]y his most recent outing against the Diamondbacks, though, that figure had fallen off more than 3 mph to just 94.7.

⚾️ Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani is making contact earlier in 2025

Ohtani’s average interception point is still deeper than most, but it’s now two inches closer to the front of home plate than it was in 2024.

⚾️ In 2025, Elly De La Cruz is making better contact with a slower swing

14.9% of his batted balls so far this year have been ‘barrels’ — up from 13% last year, and just 9% in 2023.

⚾️ Yoshinobu Yamamoto — like his compatriots — neutralises hitters with the best pitch in baseball

This year, it accounts for 22% of all pitches thrown by Japanese players; in aggregate, all other pitchers have thrown it just 3% of the time. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is among those to use it effectively.

⚾️ Shohei Ohtani has continued to shelve his splitter in his pitching return

In 2023, however, he turned to the pitch only 6% of the time — and it’s accounted for only five of the 140 pitches he’s thrown so far in 2025.

🏒 Gavin McKenna is already worth watching — NHL projections aside

In the years prior to his draft-eligible season, Bedard averaged 1.7 points per game in the WHL; McKenna has averaged 1.8 over the equivalent stretch of his career.

🏒 Connor McDavid can’t find the back of the net in the playoffs — but it’s not for a lack of effort

I probably spend more time thinking about Connor McDavid’s 2022-23 NHL season than is advisable. How top athletes adapt their approaches as their careers progress fascinates me, though — and that historic campaign is a great example.

🏒 The Oilers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final looks pretty similar to last year

Per HockeyViz, however, their underlying level of play during their 2025 Final run has been remarkably similar to last year’s.

The next edition of My Week In Sport(s) will be published in four weeks, on Friday August 22nd.